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Mar 1 2008, 10:27 PM EST (current) Downunder 1 word added, 1 word deleted
Feb 21 2008, 6:04 AM EST Downunder 7 words added, 7 words deleted

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THEORIES SHOULD BE POSTED HERE AFTER REVIEWING WHAT WE KNOW FROM SEASON ONE:

Occams Razor
This show throws many curve balls and has many plot twists. However, when trying to solve a puzzle, the solution actually may be the simplest option. The gathering of the facts below is excellent. Key point:

Why are food drops being conducted not only by Chinese but also German bombers / cargo planes?

There is a very good discussion within the show of ways to weaken the enemy including making the enemy increasingly reliant upon the provision of food, supplies, and equipment. If it was all Chinese, then China would be the attacker. But as you may recall from the early episodes, there are Mandarin Chinese news broadcasts indicating the US cities that had been destroyed. The implication was the Chinese conducted the attacks but they may have just been reporting on what had been learned. It would be an extremely elaborate ruse to fabricate satellite TV transmissions of this nature and who in the US would have a TV still operational?

Enter The German aid drops. Why a NATO ally?

The simplest answer to this entire show is this is a Fail Safe scenario. An accident occurs or a terrorist act that then triggers increasingly violent, retaliatory strikes - ICBM's. The world in total would be destroyed. The ICBM's fired out of Lawrence and Kansas would be targeted on a list of pre-planned sites. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

Answer:

  1. Hawkins is an undercover agent penetrating a terrorist cell. The simple reality is that dominoes are already set in motion and are beyond any one person's or government's control.
  2. Air drops - albeit implausible - from different nations demonstrate this is not the attack of one nation versus another. Rather it is a set of very sad circumstances.
  3. This show is a morality play - as much as it descends into the soap opera. It is more about what humans are capable of - good and bad - in horrific circumstances.
  4. The espionage aspect is thrilling too. However, now Hawkins is a domino which shows an undercover agent will tend to play both sides and then get trapped in his own deception.

Who carried out the attacks?
We know as of the end of season one that the attacks were a result of a highly connected and coordinated group including religious extremists, anarchists, and domestic militia. It must be noted that under normal circumstances, these groups would never act together. They only share the interest of bringing down the United States Government.

The leader/coordinator?
Most certainly Thomas Valente of the Department of Homeland Security
  • Very high position, works in the domestic nuclear detection office, according to the D.H.S.
    • Not so high. A review of DHS shows this position in the third rank in the food chain.
  • Coordinated CIA operations concerning Project Red Bell
    • Assumed not known.
  • After the death of Sarah Mason, Valente was seen in satellite photos attempting to purchase the nuclear device that Sarah was supposed to retrieve from Hawkins.
    • True. Reason unclear.
  • The nuclear device buried in the Hawkins's storage house could be used as evidence to the biggest crime in world history.
  • Seen in season finale coordinating military activities at Camp Freedom in Nebraska
    • Assumed only because he spoke up directing a specific action.
  • Recognizes Senator Tomarchio (who was earlier mentioned in Blackjack news) as the new President of the United States
    • Not proven. Assumed because involved in meeting with troops under that flag. Valente could still be back east since the conference was video.
  • Valente orders the military to crush the skirmish between New Bern and Jericho and to seek out one of the terrorists that was located within two-hundred miles of the area. Hawkins? This is said to be at the top of priority for President Tomarchio and his administration.
Robert Hawkins' involvement:
  • Attended CIA meetings led by Valente to discuss the theft of twenty-five high-yield Soviet nuclear devices. (Project Red Bell)
    • Valente led no meetings!
  • Was implanted deep into the terrorist cell activities by the CIA. He himself was to detonate the nuclear device that he currently holds in Columbus, Ohio.
    • ControlingControlling agency unknown!
  • Most other members of Hawkins assigned "terrorist cell" have been eliminated.
    • Also unknown (2 members now known to be alive)

Other countries possibly involved and why? Russia (former Soviets)
  • Covert strike on American interests using surrogate forces. Possibly to advance local Russian interests while taking the good will that comes from relief efforts.
  • Hawkins' web page looks Russian or Estonian.
  • Possibly the final battle of the Cold War?
  • MIGs were seen after the bombs carrying out relief efforts. Why?

Unanswered questions:
  • Is it possible that at least one of the ICBMs launched detonated early over US airspace (the source of the EMP) - although the EMP may have been the result of an incoming strike as well. If an outgoing ICBM was detonated it would not be a self-destruct as this is unlikely to cause a warhead detonation either accidentally, or by design. If the EMP was caused by a US ICBM, It had to be set in advance by someone with the codes and clearance.

  • Is Valente so dumb? Egocentric minds do not realize that large events could potentially lead to many large unintended consequences.
    • You mean like many of the 535 elected voices currently in DC

  • If he knew Hawkins then; why did he allow Hawkins to be given a nuclear bomb? Is it real or fake? Why do "they" want to get it back so badly? Is it evidence that can be used against them? Or do they fear someone driving to Nebraska and nuking them?
    • Kind of makes Valente not the bad then does it not? See above comments

  • Since DHS has failed (so far) to consolidate power back to the Federal Government, did he fail (and now is just trying to cover it up)? DHS director is supposed to be alive because he was outside D.C. Or is he now the director (killed the real director) and now is the one in Nebraska doing deals with California?
    • Not the job of DHS. DHS is the last on the totem pole for ascension.

  • Was the EMP set off with the purpose of making it difficult for the CIA unit to regroup at the Jericho meeting point? Or was it done to kill the DHS director, just before he was supposed to give the TV message? That TV message would have been a very stabilizing factor, that never occurred.
    • EMP does not kill. Why the fixation on the CIA?

  • What about the MIGs? Is Valente working for the Russians and this is just the final battle of the Cold War?
    • Russia exports its military tech just like we do. Heck Iran flies F-15s.

  • Why does Valente use a cane and limp? Is this just revenge against the country that made him they way he is?
    • Because he has a bad leg/

  • If Hawkins told the CIA that the timetable had been moved up, and the trucks were headed for the targets, why wasn't the President and Congress evacuated from Washington D.C.? The only thing I can think of is, this information never was passed along because of the mole, Valente.
    • Some of the info must have gotten through since NYC caught a set.

  • The Valente issue is quite complex, particularly because he seems to possibly fit into both the role of planner (of the attacks) and also insider who looked to benefit from them after the fact. What I mean is, he is also the one trying to secure Hawkins' weapon. If he planned the attacks, this would seem kind of pointless since he just gave away 25 nukes, why pay to get one back?
    • I have an analysis of Valente posted in several threads on the board. go check them out.

  • Further, was the operation he planned a cover to prevent the FBI from interfering? Was it an attempt to steal a group of weapons before the attack went off? Was it a hijacked actual attempt to stop the bombings? Was it all in fact the actual planning body of the attacks, to which Hawkins was simply not made aware? Was Hawkins actually in on it and just misleading or changing some of the information for Jake?






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