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Posted Anonymously |
From a scientist
Nov 30 2006, 4:15 AM EST
The theory of "Nuclear Winter" was discredited years ago. The original TTAPS study used a simulation so shockingly simplistic (I can briefly post the details if anyone cares) that any increase in realism always resulted in no "Nuclear Winter." Nevertheless, the US government went to great expense to double-check via a series of experiments (which I can also describe if you wish). By the way, "Nuclear Winter" was supposed to be caused by soot from enormous fires set by detonating nukes, not by dust and/or ash thrown up by said nukes, as some here have mis-remembered. Also, the "Nuclear Winter" theory was created as an argument in favor of nuclear disarmament, not as "evidence of MAD being a viable deterent," as someone posted here. FYI: with the coming of MIRVs, most warhead yields were reduced to 500 kilotons or less, larger-yield weapons being reserved for "hard" targets such as missile silos. The targets reported hit so far in the TV program do not match any plausible ballistic missile target set, and the only device described so far (with a 20 kiloton yield, equivalent to Hiroshima) was being smuggled into New York City by a few men in a truck, implying that the strikes are the work of small ground teams. Diminishing returns mean that little significant additional damage would result from much larger yields, while such weapons would be much more difficult to conceal and transport, so megaton-plus yields seem implausible when discussing Jericho. Also please note that a single surface burst of even megaton-plus yield would not be enough to destroy any one of most of the cities mentioned as struck in the TV show. And a 20 kiloton burst would not even destroy Manhattan, much less all of NYC. Finally, the evidence is in on Global Warming. It is real, and humans are (at least in significant part) causing it. The last three studies, released not long ago, ended any real doubts. I hope you all find these facts useful in enjoying Jericho. 61 out of 70 found this valuable. Do you?
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scottandkaren |
1. RE: From a scientist
Dec 29 2006, 3:16 PM EST
Often science has become something highly politicized, especially when it is translated into policy. I recall that the 1999 biography of Carl Sagan (Wiley) did discuss his confrontation with Teller etc ... but I am not sure I recall Sagan refuting his comments on nuclear winter can you lead me to material in which he does comment on the topic?I did a library search and have not found anything) that refutes nuclear winter as theory/hypothesis (although I did find some information surrounding ultraviolet springs which may follow and articles surrounding the persistant radioactive levels in the deer population in and around Chernobyl ( Find More Like ThisChernobyl radioactivity persists in reindeer.Authors:Skuterud, Lavrans Gaare, Eldar Eikelmann, Inger Margrethe Hove, Knut3 Steinnes, Eiliv4 Source: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity; Jul2005, Vol. 83 Issue 2, p231-252) I also found several articles discussing the ideological impact of nuclear winter on policy (especially during the reagan administration) and a more popular sort of article from Discover in 2005 on a comet causing nuclear winter on the earth 65 million yhears ago) ... Please please post the articles and citations for me to understand that this is not a factor ... the only thing that I could find was something from way back in 1985 in Scientific American saying it was impossible to predict the effects of global thermonuclear war ... help ... 1 out of 4 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Posted Anonymously |
2. RE: From a scientist
Jan 19 2007, 6:05 AM EST
You won't find information against Nuclear Winter theory as easily as for it because it is still a popular way of making people fearful of Nuclear War (which is a good thing essentially), however to know the facts should it ever happen are a lot more useful.
You may find the book 'Nuclear War Survival Skills' an interesting read, it offers a lot of interesting information including a section on 'Nuclear Winter'. 3 out of 3 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Posted Anonymously |
3. RE: From a scientist
Jan 19 2007, 11:09 AM EST
Nuclear War survival skills is an interesting read you are correct but it is not scientific information from what is known as juried academic publications . The juried part is important since that is where scientists discuss findings ... I can publish anything I want either for financial gain or for whatever. I recognize Mr.Kearny's book is available for free and is uncopyrighted. Nevertheless, it does not carry the same scientific weight as juried journals where authors present research findings and are not financially compensated for their work but it does add to scientific debate and canon. It is important with all material to be able to critically assess it. Especially on the net is that people can write anything they want a (one of the net's joys but also problematics). I would like to see what he has published in termsl scientific or engineering juried publications or what grants he personally received again looking at it critically: who funded and for what purpose A basic web search Kearny revealed the book and also that he did sign an anti-global warming document hmmm ... I did an academic search on him a short one admittedly there was one article I found critiquing his radiation meter I quote from the Journal of Health Physics 1984 volume 87 pgs 552-57 Under current circumstances, the use of the KFM as a radiation dose rate meter is possible, however not recommended. The original plans for its use in a total nuclear war intended that the whole nation would be enveloped in a crisis. However, the incapacitation of a large area of the nation is unlikely. Communication with the area, with the arrival of radiation detector-equipped first responders, is likely to be established long before the KFM can prove its usefulness. If the KFM was suggested for use by the average American family, it can possibly cause more alarm and concern by generating unforeseen errors in construction and an inability to charge in a humid environment. continued 0 out of 1 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Posted Anonymously |
4. RE: From a scientist
Jan 19 2007, 11:18 AM EST
"Nuclear War survival skills is an interesting read you are correct but it is not scientific information from what is known as juried academic publications . The juried part is important since that is where scientists discuss findings ... I can publish anything I want either for financial gain or for whatever. I recognize Mr.Kearny's book is available for free and is uncopyrighted. Nevertheless, it does not carry the same scientific weight as juried journals where authors present research findings and are not financially compensated for their work but it does add to scientific debate and canon. It is important with all material to be able to critically assess it. Especially on the net is that people can write anything they want a (one of the net's joys but also problematics). I would like to see what he has published in termsl scientific or engineering juried publications or what grants he personally received again looking at it critically: who funded and for what purposeThe full title and authors are as follows An Evaluation of the Kearny Fallout Meter (KFM), a Radiation Detector Constructed From Commonly Available Household Materials [Operational Topic] McDonald, J.T.; West, W.G.; Kearfott, K.J.* The Radiological Health Engineering Laboratory, Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, The University of Michigan, 2355 Bonisteel Boulevard, 1906 Cooley Building, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2104. Several other searches on Elsiver, Ebesco, Kluwer etc did not tell me anything more. * Do you find this valuable? |
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Posted Anonymously |
5. RE: From a scientist
Jan 24 2007, 7:15 PM EST
from another scientist
I agree that "nuclear winter" was an invention by those who sought to rid the world of nuclear weapons. I somewhat disagree about "global warming". Although the weather may be warming now, there is good evidence that this is just another cyclical weather pattern that will be offset by "global cooling" afterwards. We may see warming for 30-100 years, then leveling for 30-100 years, then cooling for 30-100 years. It is called weather. 3 out of 3 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Posted Anonymously |
6. RE: From a scientist
Jan 27 2007, 5:42 AM EST
Nuclear winter is false is it? a myth u say? please if u had actually experienced what a nuclear winter-like event was u would not say such nonsense! When krakatoa blew its top in 1883, world temperatures dropped by an average of 1.2 degrees celsius, due to the amount of dust thrown into the atmosphere! global temperatures did not return to normal till 1888. this is scientific fact, an event witnessed and followed in detail by scientists. and this little explosion was a mere 200 megatons! i live in australia, up until a month ago the area in which i live had been suffering the worst bushfires in since 2003. over 1.2 million hectares (or about a quarter of the state of victoria in which they occurred) was burnt. They burnt all through december, and the sunsets were red. The smoke cloud was visable from space and coverd half the state. due to weather conditions, it stayed close to the ground with no wind and no rain. our average temperture for that time of year is 30 degrees celsius plus. yet with the smoke cloud it was a mere 20 degress, barely exceeding 25 degrees when the sun did come up out! this went on for three weeks. so is nuclear winter a falacy? not a chance. but as was shown in jericho, the effects can be heavily mitigated by rain. the rain removes dust and smoke from the atmosphere, returning temperatures to more marginal levels while not eliminating the problem. any feed back on this would be much appreciated
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Posted Anonymously |
7. RE: From a scientist
Feb 4 2007, 4:05 AM EST
"Nuclear winter is false is it? a myth u say? please if u had actually experienced what a nuclear winter-like event was u would not say such nonsense! When krakatoa blew its top in 1883, world temperatures dropped by an average of 1.2 degrees celsius, due to the amount of dust thrown into the atmosphere! global temperatures did not return to normal till 1888. this is scientific fact, an event witnessed and followed in detail by scientists. and this little explosion was a mere 200 megatons! i live in australia, up until a month ago the area in which i live had been suffering the worst bushfires in since 2003. over 1.2 million hectares (or about a quarter of the state of victoria in which they occurred) was burnt. They burnt all through december, and the sunsets were red. The smoke cloud was visable from space and coverd half the state. due to weather conditions, it stayed close to the ground with no wind and no rain. our average temperture for that time of year is 30 degrees celsius plus. yet with the smoke cloud it was a mere 20 degress, barely exceeding 25 degrees when the sun did come up out! this went on for three weeks. so is nuclear winter a falacy? not a chance. but as was shown in jericho, the effects can be heavily mitigated by rain. the rain removes dust and smoke from the atmosphere, returning temperatures to more marginal levels while not eliminating the problem. any feed back on this would be much appreciated "A mere 200 megatons? The average yield for a nuclear bomb is 1 mega ton or less!!!! They have found that the destructive ratio does not equal the yield ratio.After a yield ratio of 1 mega ton is you start to get into diminishing returns.The bomb is harder to build and cost more for less bang for your buck. Krakatoa was a complete "ground"burst.Nuclear weapons are set off appro. 1230-1500 feet above ground level unless they "burrowing"into a hardened target.Can you say Norad!You are comparing apples kumquats here,I think. Do you find this valuable? |
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Posted Anonymously |
8. RE: From a scientist
Feb 19 2007, 12:59 AM EST
"Finally, the evidence is in on Global Warming. It is real, and humans are (at least in significant part) causing it. The last three studies, released not long ago, ended any real doubts. "Anyone ever notice that the "fact" that humans are to blame for global warming is irrefutable, and the increased solar activity over the past several decades is forever overlooked? This "evidence" from the same "scientific minds" that had us in a global ice age by the mid 21st century, according to the 4/28/1975 issue of Newsweek. There weren't any "real doubts" then, either, except that 10 years later, we started worrying about the coming heatwave. Quick question: Were you at that global warming convention that got snowed out last week? Just curious... "Scientists" will find all the evidence needed where money is to be found for research. Dispute that and I can cite at least 100 "scientific" articles that claimed smoking was harmless, some as recently as 10-15 years ago. Thanks for your politically funded scientific view. Back on topic now. 4 out of 4 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Katalina55 |
9. RE: From a scientist
Feb 19 2007, 10:08 AM EST
"Anyone ever notice that the "fact" that humans are to blame for global warming is irrefutable, and the increased solar activity over the past several decades is forever overlooked?First of all there was a new groundbreaking understanding in the 1970's of scomething known as the Milankovitch cycles,which are astronomical cycles. These cycles somehow appear to combine to create the coming and going of ice ages. Nevertheless, the next ice age back in the 1970's was predicted in 10,000 years, Not immediately.New evidence (sincethe tools available have undergone a tremendous change) suggests the predicition of 10,000 years might be off. Well, in the 1970's magazines picked up on this and of course so did other popular media ... it was never something generally accepted in the scientific community Newsweel wrote a retraction to what they said (in the same veing as Time mag of 1975) writing he point to remember, says Connolley, is that predictions of global cooling never approached the kind of widespread scientific consensus that supports the greenhouse effect today. And for good reason: the tools scientists have at their disposal now—vastly more data, incomparably faster computers and infinitely more sophisticated mathematical models—render any forecasts from 1975 as inoperative http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15391426/site/newsweek/page/2/ ... If you go to the newsweek article about the subject they explain how they became far too histrionic During the same time (the 1970's) there was beginning to be some discussion on global warming . Suffice to say now ideologues Sen. James Inhofe have used this to attempt to discredit global warming. Global warming or perhaps better said global climate change is now something globally accepted as real --- there is no longer a debate surrounding it. Global warming brings about heavier storms ... and that includes snow storms in the north ...vaporation increases when the surface temperature of the ocean rises and warmer air can hold more moisture. When this soggier-than-normal air moves over land, it results in storms wetter and more intense than those experienced in the past. Continued next post Do you find this valuable? |
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Katalina55 |
10. RE: From a scientist
Feb 19 2007, 10:19 AM EST
"First of all there was a new groundbreaking understanding in the 1970's of scomething known as the Milankovitch cycles,which are astronomical cycles. These cycles somehow appear to combine to create the coming and going of ice ages. Nevertheless, the next ice age back in the 1970's was predicted in 10,000 years, Not immediately.New evidence (sincethe tools available have undergone a tremendous change) suggests the predicition of 10,000 years might be off. Well, in the 1970's magazines picked up on this and of course so did other popular media ... it was never something generally accepted in the scientific communityThere is NO longer a debate sorry ... and we need to find ways to work together to lessen the effects and prepare for the future NOW --- not just for our own sakes, but for our children and grandchildren 0 out of 4 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Posted Anonymously |
11. RE: From a scientist
Feb 25 2007, 12:00 AM EST
If you really dont believe this fellow about nuclear winter, effects of small bombs, try and determine how many bombs have been detonated on or above the surface of the earth. Hint its a little more than the two (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) that immediatlly come to mind.
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Dukenuchem |
12. RE: From a scientist
Mar 10 2007, 9:15 PM EST
"Often science has become something highly politicized, especially when it is translated into policy. I recall that the 1999 biography of Carl Sagan (Wiley) did discuss his confrontation with Teller etc ... but I am not sure I recall Sagan refuting his comments on nuclear winter can you lead me to material in which he does comment on the topic?The Nuclear Winter theory was based on a computer program designed to explain Martian dust storms lasting months. Critics found that Earth had oceans which would create soot scavenging turbulence. The initial theory considered the case where 8,000 megatons of explosives created thousands of fires. A recent publication finds that fires in 100 Asian cities could create a nuclear winter. Asian cities have a higher density of combustible material than Western counterparts. The Jericho scenario of a dozen, 20-KT, groundbursts would not seem to meet the criteria of nuclear winter proponents. The United States Air Force fire bombed some sixty Japanese cities in 1945 and several in Europe. Smoke was common but crop failure due to freezing weather is not something I have read about from this era. 1 out of 1 found this valuable. Do you? |
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Posted Anonymously |
13. RE: From a scientist
Mar 12 2007, 2:11 AM EDT
discredited or criticized, two different things...With the all the climate change research someone decided to plug in. Your tax dollars. Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2006: Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences. Submitted to J. Geophys. Res., doi:2006JD008235. http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/nw4.pdf The fun thing here is that small regional exchanges were also looked at. Doesn't take much to cause problems. 100 15 kiloton bombs, is small compared to Superpower forces. They also looked at the kinds of smoke. One produced by a weapon is different from our buddy St. Helens. But this is science in a peer reviewed journal. Not the easy read, and not the EMP folks of missle defense. A good critic, should have his or her own paper... Do you find this valuable? |
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Posted Anonymously |
14. RE: From a scientist
Mar 31 2007, 10:24 AM EDT
Then how do you account for the Medieval Optimum? Also the fact that Global Warming alarmists begin their data collection at the recognized end of the "Little Ice Age"?
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Posted Anonymously |
15. RE: From a scientist
Mar 31 2007, 10:27 AM EDT
Soory the number is way more than two!!!!!
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Dukenuchem |
16. RE: Climate Modeling
Mar 31 2007, 2:41 PM EDT
I believe the original question was whether Jericho would experience a "nuclear winter". My response is "probably not".
The second question is whether anyone can have a valid observation without a government grant, supercomputer and publication in a peer reviewed journal. I would say yes. Science is learning all the time. The original model of nuclear winter predicted major cooling from Mount Pinatubo and the burning of the Kuwait oil fields. That did not happen. Yes, our models are now improved. In 2005 a massive huricane season was predicted for 2006. That did not happen. Models fail for a number of reasons such as not knowing all the factors, not having proper values for the factors, and even failure to ask the correct question. "Nuclear Winter" is one answer to whether nuclear war would be more horrible than that waged with conventional explosives. Another question would be whether nuclear war would be more horrible than that waged with biological weapons. D. Do you find this valuable? |
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Posted Anonymously |
17. RE: From a scientist
Apr 4 2007, 2:58 PM EDT
"If you really dont believe this fellow about nuclear winter, effects of small bombs, try and determine how many bombs have been detonated on or above the surface of the earth. Hint its a little more than the two (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) that immediatlly come to mind. "Actually the US, USSR, UK, France and China tested a lot of surface, airborne, and LEO detonations before treates banned all but underground testing. Probably a few hundread over the last 60 years. Do you find this valuable? |
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Posted Anonymously |
18. let's not get started on global warming.
Apr 4 2007, 3:06 PM EDT
"from another scientistit right in there with "zero population growth" if you ask me. it is just weather. No more or less. Do you find this valuable? |
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Posted Anonymously |
19. RE: let's not get started on global warming.
Apr 4 2007, 5:22 PM EDT
There are such things as opinions which everyone can have, and opinions can be about epistemology, ontology or axiology. In other words you can have an opinion about how you feel about something aesthetic: say a tv show, music or a work of art. You can have an opinion or interpretation of history up to a point. For example the Iraq War is a historical fact. How you feel about that fact is contingent on ideology. Opinions cannot be about scientific facts. The debate over nuclear winter is not a scientific debate it is a policy debate (actually a military policy debate). Global warming has ceased to even be a policy debate and it is better to call it global climate change. It is an accepted scientific fact and a reality which we will have to grapple with and it is a legacy that we pass on to our children. Please do not try and engage in a straw man argument by transpositioning language and please please please I implore you and everyone else on the board to do what you can to help intercede and do your part to transform our gluttonous over consumption of natural (and limited) resources. There is no credible scientific evidence to dispute global climate change despite the attempts of oil companies (like Exxon) to pay large amounts of cash to do so. It is no longer a debate: it is a fact (remember scientific facts are called theories). A fact as much as gravity is a fact. It is not subject to ideological contestation despite attempts to do so 0 out of 4 found this valuable. Do you? |